[racket] A small little random tutorial

I had it explained to me this way once.

On your first pick to *want* to pick an incorrect door.  That way when you
switch you will switch to the correct door.

What is the probability of picking an incorrect door on the first pick? 2/3.

-Joe

On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 9:07 PM, Gregory Woodhouse <gregwoodhouse at me.com>wrote:

> It's funny how working out the probabilities doesn't seem to help. The
> paradox is truly stubborn. I can explain why changing doors is the right
> thing to do, but it still doesn't " feel" right.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Oct 20, 2012, at 8:49 PM, Neil Toronto <neil.toronto at gmail.com> wrote:
>
> > On 10/20/2012 05:15 PM, Danny Yoo wrote:
> >> http://hashcollision.org/vegas-blues/
> >>
> >> The tone ended up being a bit bluer than I expected, hence the title.
> >>
> >> Suggestions or comments would be appreciated.  Thanks!
> >
> > Cute!
> >
> > It reminds me of a dad/randomness thing from my past, so I got all
> nostalgic. In a good way, not a PTSD way.
> >
> > When I was 13, my dad and I both read an article about the Monty Hall
> problem. (Try http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem for an
> overview.) I agreed with the expert after enumerating the possible outcomes
> and summing their probabilities; my dad still disagreed. I wrote a small
> program to simulate the game show and the counts seemed to agree with the
> probabilities; my dad said the program must be wrong.
> >
> > Okay, maybe a little PTSD. For heck's sake, the man was a
> *meteorologist* and a *programmer*. Statistics was half his life, and he
> could ready my code! Anyway, I know I'm right, and that's all that counts.
> Right? Right.
> >
> > Ah, dads and randomness. Makes me a little teary.
> >
> > Neil ⊥
> >
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