I had it explained to me this way once.<div><br></div><div>On your first pick to *want* to pick an incorrect door. That way when you switch you will switch to the correct door.</div><div><br></div><div>What is the probability of picking an incorrect door on the first pick? 2/3.</div> <div><br></div><div>-Joe<br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Sat, Oct 20, 2012 at 9:07 PM, Gregory Woodhouse <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:gregwoodhouse@me.com" target="_blank">gregwoodhouse@me.com</a>></span> wrote:<br> <blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">It's funny how working out the probabilities doesn't seem to help. The paradox is truly stubborn. I can explain why changing doors is the right thing to do, but it still doesn't " feel" right.<br> <br> Sent from my iPhone<br> <div class="HOEnZb"><div class="h5"><br> On Oct 20, 2012, at 8:49 PM, Neil Toronto <<a href="mailto:neil.toronto@gmail.com">neil.toronto@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br> <br> > On 10/20/2012 05:15 PM, Danny Yoo wrote:<br> >> <a href="http://hashcollision.org/vegas-blues/" target="_blank">http://hashcollision.org/vegas-blues/</a><br> >><br> >> The tone ended up being a bit bluer than I expected, hence the title.<br> >><br> >> Suggestions or comments would be appreciated. Thanks!<br> ><br> > Cute!<br> ><br> > It reminds me of a dad/randomness thing from my past, so I got all nostalgic. In a good way, not a PTSD way.<br> ><br> > When I was 13, my dad and I both read an article about the Monty Hall problem. (Try <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem</a> for an overview.) I agreed with the expert after enumerating the possible outcomes and summing their probabilities; my dad still disagreed. I wrote a small program to simulate the game show and the counts seemed to agree with the probabilities; my dad said the program must be wrong.<br> ><br> > Okay, maybe a little PTSD. For heck's sake, the man was a *meteorologist* and a *programmer*. Statistics was half his life, and he could ready my code! Anyway, I know I'm right, and that's all that counts. Right? Right.<br> ><br> > Ah, dads and randomness. Makes me a little teary.<br> ><br> > Neil ⊥<br> ><br> > ____________________<br> > Racket Users list:<br> > <a href="http://lists.racket-lang.org/users" target="_blank">http://lists.racket-lang.org/users</a><br> <br> ____________________<br> Racket Users list:<br> <a href="http://lists.racket-lang.org/users" target="_blank">http://lists.racket-lang.org/users</a><br> </div></div></blockquote></div><br></div>